BI
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- BLK delivered Q2 2025 diluted EPS of $10.19 GAAP and $12.05 as adjusted; EPS beat consensus ($10.81*) on non-operating gains and strong base fee growth, while total revenue of $5.42B was slightly below consensus ($5.45B*) . EPS beat vs estimates; revenue was a small miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Total net inflows were $68B despite a single institutional client’s $52B lower-fee index partial redemption; iShares ETFs had a record first half and Q2 ETF net inflows of $85B .
- GAAP operating margin fell to 31.9% (from 37.5% YoY) on acquisition-related costs and higher G&A; as-adjusted margin was 43.3% (down 80 bps YoY), with management reiterating a path to 45%+ over the cycle .
- Technology services revenue rose 26% YoY to $499M; ACV grew 32% including Preqin and 16% organically; digital assets momentum remained strong (IBIT crossed $75B at quarter-end and >$80B post-quarter) .
- HPS closed July 1; management guided ~$450M incremental revenue in Q3 (incl. ~$225M mgmt fees), base fee run-rate entering Q3 ~5% higher ex-HPS; share repurchases of at least $375M per quarter continue .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Above-target organic base fee growth (6% Q2 and 1H) with record AUM of $12.5T; “These are just the early days in our next phase of even stronger growth” — CEO .
- ETFs leadership: Q2 ETF net inflows of $85B with fixed income $44B; Europe contributed $29B; active ETFs and digital asset ETPs added $11B and $14B, respectively .
- Technology scale: $499M tech/subscription revenue (+$104M YoY), ACV +32% including Preqin (+16% organically); Preqin added ~$60M to Q2 revenue .
- What Went Wrong
- Institutional index outflows ($48B) driven by one $52B redemption; GAAP operating margin compressed to 31.9% on acquisition-related/contingent consideration, amortization, and restructuring .
- Performance fees fell to $94M (down $70M YoY) on private markets and liquid alternatives; catch-up base fees were $36M lower vs Q1, modestly pressuring fee rate .
- Effective tax rate rose to 26.9% (vs 24.2% YoY; Q1 was 14.1% with discrete benefits), dampening GAAP EPS leverage .
Financial Results
YoY and vs Estimates (Q2 focus)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment revenue breakdown (Q2 2025)
KPIs and flow mix (Q2 2025)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (Laurence D. Fink): “We generated 6% organic base fee growth for the second quarter... propelled another consecutive quarter of above-target organic base fee growth and record AUM of $12.5 trillion... These are just the early days in our next phase of even stronger growth.”
- CFO (Martin Small): “We expect HPS to add approximately $450 million of revenue, including $225 million in management fees, in the third quarter of 2025... we entered the third quarter with an estimated base fee run rate approximately 5% higher than our total base fees for the second quarter.”
- CEO on ETFs and digital assets: “Our active ETFs delivered $11 billion of net inflows, and our digital asset products continue to set new records. IBIT at quarter-end crossed over $75 billion... as of this morning, it crossed over $80 billion.”
- CEO on strategy: “We’re building on our foundational platform to redefine the whole portfolio again by bringing together public and private markets across both asset management and technology.”
Q&A Highlights
- Integration progress and client traction: Robust insurer, wealth, and retirement demand; infra pipeline (malaysian airports, ports transaction) and private credit opportunities with HPS .
- Retirement with privates: Great Gray glidepath announced; proprietary LifePath with privates targeted for 2026; momentum contingent on litigation/advice reform .
- Margin outlook: Short-term margin diluted by lower performance fees and consolidation costs; reiteration of 45%+ long-term target; controllable expenses aligned with organic growth post integrations .
- Fundraising roadmap: Multi-strategy pipeline across infra equity/debt, direct lending, secondaries; $400B gross fundraising targeted 2025–2030, ramping in later years .
- Capital returns: Dividend payout ratio 40–50% maintained; at least $375M buybacks per quarter; dividend growth targeted high-single to low-double-digit aligned to strategy .
- ETFs Europe and fixed income: Continued leadership and adoption with 38 products >$1B inflows; Europe five to six years behind U.S. creates runway .
- Stablecoins: BlackRock managing reserves (e.g., Circle); emphasis that stablecoins should be backed by short-term government bonds; pipeline broadening with central banks .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 EPS beat: Actual $12.05 vs consensus $10.81*; Q2 2025 revenue slight miss: Actual $5.423B vs $5.446B* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- FY 2025/2026 consensus: EPS $47.84* / $54.09*; Revenue $23.96B* / $27.60B*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- EBITDA context: Q2 2025 actual $2.073B* vs consensus $2.340B*; indicates beat on EPS driven more by non-operating gains/tax rate and base fees than EBITDA. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- EPS beat with revenue near-consensus: As-adjusted EPS $12.05 beat on non-operating gains and strong base fee growth; revenue modest miss likely not thesis-changing given fee run-rate guidance into Q3 .
- Organic engines intact: ETFs (especially fixed income), private markets fundraising, and technology ACV underpin durable growth above the 5% organic base fee target .
- Temporary margin dilution: GAAP margin compression from acquisition-related costs and lower performance fees should normalize; management reiterates 45%+ as-adjusted margin target .
- Flow volatility manageable: Index outflows tied to single large client; excluding the activity, net inflows were ~$116B, showing underlying demand remains robust .
- Near-term catalysts: HPS revenue accretion (~$450M in Q3; fee rate +0.6 bps), base fee run-rate entering Q3 ~5% higher ex-HPS; continued buybacks ($375M/qtr) and $5.21 dividend support capital returns .
- Medium-term thesis: Integrated public/private platform (PFS), retirement glidepaths with privates, European ETF adoption, and tokenization/digital assets create multiple growth vectors .
- Watch items: Effective tax rate at ~25% (higher vs Q1), performance fees variability, and the pace of acquisition integration cost synergies into 2026 .
Notes on non-GAAP: As-adjusted results exclude acquisition-related costs, contingent consideration fair value adjustments, amortization of intangibles, restructuring, and hedge impacts on deferred compensation; reconciliations provided in the 8-K .